{"id":797,"date":"2004-07-28T23:36:35","date_gmt":"2004-07-28T22:36:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.freiholtz.se\/forvetet\/?p=797"},"modified":"2004-07-28T23:36:35","modified_gmt":"2004-07-28T22:36:35","slug":"inte-gradvis-precis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.freiholtz.se\/forvetet\/2004\/07\/28\/inte-gradvis-precis\/","title":{"rendered":"Inte gradvis precis"},"content":{"rendered":"

Under rubriken ”Krauthammer mosar Blix<\/em>” refererade Dick Erixon<\/a> f\u00f6r n\u00e5gra veckor sedan till en kr\u00f6nika i Washington Post<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Det enda kr\u00f6nik\u00f6ren Charles Krauthammer krossar \u00e4r l\u00e4sarens f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar p\u00e5 en l\u00e4sv\u00e4rd artikel. Det framg\u00e5r \u00e4r att Krauthammer \u00e4r uppbragt \u00f6ver att Hans Blix inte delar hans uppfattning att massf\u00f6rst\u00f6relsevapen i h\u00e4nderna p\u00e5 islamiska fundamentalister (i samarbete med s.k. terrorstater) \u00e4r det allvarligste hotet mot civilisationen (vilket i Krauthammers \u00f6gon \u00e4r synonymt med USA). N\u00e5gra bel\u00e4gg f\u00f6r att det \u00e4r ett reellt hot presenteras dock inte. De hot som Blix pekat p\u00e5 i sitt tal avf\u00e4rdar han med ett undantag:<\/p>\n

”Global warming might one day be <\/em>[ett hot mot civilisationen, min anm\u00e4rkning], but not for decades, or even centuries, and with a gradualness that will leave years for countermeasures.<\/em>”<\/p>\n

Detta \u00e4r ett fullkomligt grundl\u00f6st p\u00e5st\u00e5ende. Krauthammer delar den allm\u00e4nt utbredda vanf\u00f6rest\u00e4llningen att en global klimatf\u00f6r\u00e4ndring kommer att vara en utdragen process och att vi har gott om tid att v\u00e4nda utvecklingen (och r\u00e4dda civilisationen).<\/p>\n

I tv\u00e5 intressanta artiklar p\u00e5 GP:s kultursida, Det ober\u00e4kneliga klimatet<\/a><\/em> och Sm\u00e4ltande glaci\u00e4rer och stigande hav<\/a><\/em>, visar Nils-Aage Larsson p\u00e5 ett \u00f6vertygande s\u00e4tt att klimatf\u00f6r\u00e4ndringar kan ske mycket snabbt och att v\u00e5ra m\u00f6jligheter att v\u00e4nda utvecklingen n\u00e4r den v\u00e4l tagit fart \u00e4r ytterst begr\u00e4nsade.<\/p>\n

I b\u00e5da artiklarna n\u00e4mner Larsson olika feedbackmekanismer som snabbar p\u00e5 utvecklingen. De \u00e4r exempel p\u00e5 vad som en systemt\u00e4nkare kallar f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkande processer. Ett enkelt exempel p\u00e5 hur f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkande processer fungerar \u00e4r Den 29:dagen<\/a> (ppt). Presentationen som i huvudsak best\u00e5r av sk\u00e4rmdumpar fr\u00e5n en simulering i verktyget ithink visar sv\u00e5righeterna att i tid uppfatta och hantera konsekvenserna av f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkande processer.<\/p>\n

Jag har tidigare skrivit om systemt\u00e4nkande\/System Dynamics, bl.a. h\u00e4r<\/a> och h\u00e4r<\/a>. Hakank<\/a> har skrivit mycket l\u00e4sv\u00e4rt om dynamiska system<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Under rubriken ”Krauthammer mosar Blix” refererade Dick Erixon f\u00f6r n\u00e5gra veckor sedan till en kr\u00f6nika i Washington Post. Det enda kr\u00f6nik\u00f6ren Charles Krauthammer krossar \u00e4r l\u00e4sarens f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar p\u00e5 en l\u00e4sv\u00e4rd artikel. Det framg\u00e5r \u00e4r att Krauthammer \u00e4r uppbragt \u00f6ver att Hans Blix inte delar hans uppfattning att massf\u00f6rst\u00f6relsevapen i h\u00e4nderna p\u00e5 islamiska fundamentalister (i samarbete…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,9],"tags":[88,170],"class_list":["post-797","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politik","category-vetenskap","tag-klimat","tag-system-dynamics"],"yoast_head":"\nInte gradvis precis - F\u00f6rvetet<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.freiholtz.se\/forvetet\/2004\/07\/28\/inte-gradvis-precis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Inte gradvis precis - F\u00f6rvetet\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Under rubriken ”Krauthammer mosar Blix” refererade Dick Erixon f\u00f6r n\u00e5gra veckor sedan till en kr\u00f6nika i Washington Post. 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